MAINTENANCE / AI PREDICTION

AI 健康預測

線性+殘差模型 · 健康分數推估 + 剩餘壽命 + 6 月故障機率

Fan-09 · AI 預測

OC1506-0252-5 排修中 2026-05-18

當前健康分數

0..100 · 越高越健康

趨勢斜率

-7.49/月

近 13 週線性回歸

剩餘壽命估算 RUL

4.7 月

外推至健康分數 ≤ 50

● 健康分數● 預測（80% 信心區間）健康 ≥ 85 · 追蹤 50-85 · 危險 < 50

Fan-09 · 故障機率分析

型六 6105SW4014 · 聯軸器直結 · 17 種故障規則模型: vibration + audio + 規則融合

軸承異常軸承類

76%

葉輪不平衡不平衡

25%

軸承座鬆動鬆動

24%

聯軸器平行不對心對心

18%

聯軸器角度不對心對心

18%

軸承過熱軸承類

16%

軟腳鬆動

15%

基礎鬆動鬆動

14%

流動紊流其他

14%

馬達座鬆動鬆動

13%

電氣問題其他

13%

軸承歪斜軸承類

13%

軸彎曲不平衡

12%

負載變動其他

10%

機械共振其他

10%

衝擊型故障其他

空蝕其他

◦ 機率 ≥ 60% 視為高風險 · 30–60% 為注意 · < 30% 為正常範圍
◦ 型一風機（皮帶傳動）不出現聯軸器類別；型六風機（聯軸器直結）不出現皮帶類別
◦ 同樣的模型驅動虛擬廠房中專家系統 tab 的 22 卡片，數值來源一致

Fan-09 · AI 模型信心度時間趨勢

CNN + 殘差網路推估 22 類異常的逐日信心度22 類 · 過去 16 週 · 逐日採樣

● 彩色實線：信心度最高 6 類○ 灰底背景：其餘 16 類 (低於 TOP-6)

當前 TOP 6

◦ 滑入列表項目可在圖上單獨高亮該分類

6 個月故障機率矩陣 · P(健康分數 < 50 任一時間點)

風機	26-05	26-06	26-07	26-08	26-09	26-10	最大
Fan-01 OC412425-110-1	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Fan-02 OC412425-110-2	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Fan-03 OC412425-110-3	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Fan-04 OC412425-110-4	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Fan-05 OC1506-0252-1	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Fan-06 OC1506-0252-2	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Fan-07 OC1506-0252-3	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Fan-08 OC1506-0252-4	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Fan-09 OC1506-0252-5	0%	0%	0%	4%	46%	95%	95%
Fan-10 OC412425-110-1-B	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Fan-11 OC412425-110-2-B	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Fan-12 OC412425-110-3-B	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Fan-13 OC412425-110-4-B	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Fan-14 (型六) OC1506-0252-1-B	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Fan-15 (型六) OC1506-0252-2-B	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Fan-16 (型六) OC1506-0252-3-B	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Fan-17 (型六) OC1506-0252-4-B	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Fan-18 (型六) OC1506-0252-5-B	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Fan-19 OC412425-110-1-C	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Fan-20 OC412425-110-2-C	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Fan-21 OC412425-110-3-C	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Fan-22 OC412425-110-4-C	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Fan-23 (型六) OC1506-0252-1-C	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Fan-24 (型六) OC1506-0252-2-C	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Fan-25 (型六) OC1506-0252-3-C	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Fan-26 (型六) OC1506-0252-4-C	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Fan-27 (型六) OC1506-0252-5-C	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%